Commentary: Mahkota by-election has far-reaching consequences for Malaysia government

KUALA LUMPUR: An obscure constituency in central Johor is set to hold its by-election on Wednesday (Sep 28), following the death of Sharifah Azizah Syed Zain from the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO).
The Mahkota by-election is numerically inconsequential to the UMNO-led state government. At the March 2022 state elections, UMNO and Barisan Nasional (BN) won 40 of the 56 seats in the Johor Assembly.
Nonetheless, a closer look shows the contest will have far-reaching consequences beyond Johor on the political and economic fronts.
Politically, the by-election will test the federal unity government’s complicated relationship with Malay-Muslim voters and its ability to challenge Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) popularity in the community.
A PN victory will strengthen the narrative that Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and its Islamist partner, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), are on track to win the next General Election with strong Malay-Muslim support.
On the economic front, an energised PN could raise doubts about the future of the government’s major initiatives, including the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, which has been touted as a game changer on both sides of the Causeway.
Mahkota is a Malay-Muslim majority constituency with the community making up 54.5 per cent of the voters, followed by Chinese voters at 34.5 per cent and Indian voters at 7.7 per cent. BN lost Mahkota only once in 2018 when Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) Amanah narrowly won the seat with about 48 per cent of the votes.
BN narrowly recaptured the seat at the snap state polls in March 2022 in a four-cornered contest against PH, PN and Warisan. BN won about 45 per cent of the valid votes, while PH got over 31 per cent. PN finished third with about 21 per cent of the votes.
In a direct electoral fight with BN, PN has a path to victory by increasing its share of the Malay-Muslim votes. It may do so by targeting UMNO supporters who are still unhappy with the BN-PH partnership.
PH will likely stick to its formula of maximising the turnout of non-Malay voters. PH and the unity government need a convincing win for UMNO to slow down PN’s momentum.
However, Mahkota has exposed an internal competition between UMNO and Amanah, as to which party is the rightful representative of the Malay-Muslim community in the unity government. Amanah has demanded that UMNO step aside in Mahkota.
A similar conflict is also shaping up in Selangor. To de-escalate the situation in Mahkota, Johor Democrat Action Party (DAP) chairman Liew Chin Tong said that the party will adhere to the principle of incumbency, which means BN will likely field a candidate.
This does not end PH’s broader dilemma in strengthening its Malay-Muslim representation. It is in PH’s interest to see a stronger UMNO; that said, PH does not want the latter to become so strong that it regroups with its partners in BN to challenge PH at the next general election.
A win in Mahkota will certainly help strengthen UMNO’s primary role in the unity government, which is to give the administration credibility among the Malay-Muslim voters. However, a win may embolden some leaders in UMNO to pressure the party to abandon PH ahead of the next general election.
Incidentally, Kluang UMNO chief and former Mahkota Assemblyman Datuk Jais Sarday has been critical of the party’s relationship with DAP and the unity government.
The Johor government is unique as it was formed exclusively by BN. Following the November 2022 General Election that saw the formation of the federal unity government, PH continued to play the role of official opposition in the state.
Given the complicated relationship between PH and UMNO at the state level, PH supporters may be tempted to stay away from the by-election campaign, thus allowing PN to mount a strong challenge or even win the seat.
A PN victory will only increase the coalition’s seats from four to five, but it will energise PN, especially Bersatu, which does not control any state government, unlike PAS.
Bersatu will likely be more aggressive in turning Johor into a frontline state ahead of the next election cycle. With a stronger and more aggressive PN in the state, the federal unity government’s recent focus on south Johor in reinvigorating the economy may be disrupted.
PN leaders have largely been silent on the government’s initiatives in south Johor, namely the proposed Special Economic Zone with Singapore and the Forest City Special Financial Zone, but PN will likely promote a more Mahathir-esque economic policy in Johor that is more isolationist in nature.
 Dr Mahathir Mohamad is, after all, the adviser to the four PN state governments of Terengganu, Kelantan, Kedah and Perlis. Mahathir has been critical of developments in south Johor and, most recently, has criticised the Johor Bahru-Singapore RTS Link.
Despite holding no official position, Mahathir’s remarks are often seen to require a response from the government. His recent comments that Malaysia has been subsidising Singapore’s water supply have forced the government to declare that it is reviewing the relevant agreements.
The resurfacing of old contentious bilateral issues, if not managed well, will disrupt the government’s plans for the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone and the Forest City Special Financial Zone.
Mahathir is not the only reason an energised PN is bad news for the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone and the Forest City Special Financial Zone. PN chairman and Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin’s stronghold is in Pagoh, in northern Johor.
As prime minister, Muhyiddin launched the Pagoh Special Economic Zone in 2021. Strengthening the Pagoh Special Economic Zone was also part of the PN’s manifesto in the Johor state elections in March 2022. Not much has been heard about the Pagoh Special Economic Zone since the change of federal government in November 2022.
With months to go before the federal unity government enters its midterm, the actions of PH and UMNO leaders following the Mahkota by-election will indicate the lifespan of the PH-BN partnership and the credibility of the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone and the Forest City Special Financial Zone.
Adib Zalkapli is a public policy consultant advising companies in navigating political challenges in Asia. This commentary first appeared on ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s blog, Fulcrum.